A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
